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May 17, 2010
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I have written and posted such themed topics before. But I
wanted to once again voice my concern for all of you in the coming months. It is my belief and fear that the US economy
is currently in a very bad place, and worse is still heading in a very bad
direction. To use an analogy:
We are all pawns in an economic game of chess. Many of us
have been already “taken” in this awful game. But now the “bad guys” have let
it be known that check in is 3 moves and check-mate is in 4. And of course,
check-mate spells the end of the game.
I wish I could spell out some sure fire measures that we all
could take such that we could weather this chaos unscathed. But as we are merely
pawns and as the game that is in motion is too far gone for most of us to hope
for it to pass us by. What little I can
suggest I do here:
Eliminate all short term debt: The federal government, due to pressure from
the large financial institutions, eliminated usury laws years ago. In their
place, there are two limits, one hard and one soft. The hard limit is about
33%, and is the max rate an institution can charge above the second rate. The
second is often called the prime rate.
Currently and for a long time this rate has sat at 0%. However, there is
NO cap on this rate. During the 80’s
this rate reached 20%. Thus there is NO actual maximum rate and without
breaking any historic records; a rate of 53% could be charged credit consumers.
You do not want to be there!
Roll variable short term debt into fixed debt (short or long
term): Inflation actually benefits long
term low fixed rate loan holders. This is because they can pay back “expensive”
money with inflated “cheap” money. Another analogy:
Think about a small city of 20,000 people, which has for no
real reason 10,000 gas masks. As long as the threat of death due to gas bombs
is low to none, the value of owning gas masks is low to none. But at the moment
of the gas attack, the 10,000 gas masks will have a value equal to the richest
10,000 city dwellers. The point being,
getting a loan now is cheap… at the moment of impact of inflation it will not
be. I do not think there will be a long slow climb.
If possible, employment wise, position yourself as producer
of goods. Especially food stuff… yes; farming.
But any REAL producer of a marketable product will benefit from the
future crisis. This is because, unlike
other times, there is a real possibility that other world economies will also shy
away from the US dollar. While the USA has been a huge importer of everything
for decades, once others decide they do not want the dollar, most of the cheap
goods we have come to rely on will evaporate from store shelves.
Consider, minimizing your dollar assets. Everyone loves
having lots of dollars, but during inflation your dollar buys less and less on
a daily basis. The better plan is to move any large cash asset into “things”
which will go up in value in relation to the falling value of the dollar. Currently
commodity traders are doing this RIGHT NOW, and in doing so are of course
driving up the prices of the things we need and consume. Land ( but not houses), and liquid commodities
( silver, gold) or producing entities like oil wells or mines ( stock) as your
stock in the company is “owning” a part of the actual possessions of that
company.
I wish you all well in the new year. 
Soap Box, Ballot Box, Ammo Box
in that order.
4 Monson Model 15's
1 Palmer FB 15
1 Rossi 357 Model 92 (lever)
1 CZ 75B
Supporter
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January 24, 2009
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Pinetor said:
I wish you all well in the new year.
Thanks.
Now I want to crawl into a hole with my fuzzy blankie & hide for a decade or two.
February 11, 2010
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I hear ya Pine 
. We're getting Fleeced ! When you say "things" do guns count ? 
-Blacktop
October 13, 2009
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Excellent post Pinetor!
On the producer of things...that is an excellent point...and farming/growing things is right on...I myself am planning on getting into growing things here at the shop this year. The thing is that my "real" job of being machine shop owner and making gun parts and other machined/fabricated products is that there isn't anything one really NEEDS. Its more a matter of WANTS! If you are hungery and just have $20 are you going to buy some green beans or a Dan Wesson barrel wrench? (Some may agrue that point! 
)
Don't invest in overpriced gold and other things. Invest in canned food, and ammo!
And most of all-make sure you're ready for eternity!
Eric
January 17, 2010
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Good writeup, love the analogies.
+investing in canned food and ammo!
Have been thinking about getting some silver, I have read that it is more liquid than gold and would be easier to use for goods during the "doomsday" times that lie ahead.
Oh course we know the government is going broke....what happens when the welfare checks stop? ??
Zombies?
"experience is the hardest teacher, the test comes before the lesson"
Range Officer
Range Officers
Dans Club
February 9, 2009
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Look at the copper market too! That is wwreaking havoc in our business right now. It has escalated above levels to historic proportions. Great topic and thought provoker.
A man cannot have too many SuperMags
May 17, 2010
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Eric...
I do truley understand the position your in. My belief is that all too soon things will "flip" in terms import/export. When China no longer wants our dollar.. we will not be able to buy their goods...we will have to turn elsewhere for those goods; those that can make those goods locally stand a chance to sustain themselves handsomely. But in the mean time, cheap imports goods cant be beat.
On metals: I quit buying several years ago. I have read a lot on having silver as a means of barter or as an alternative to storing wealth, but I have not moved to use in that way.
I did buy $500 of mining stock.. nearly doubled that in 30 days and pulled my $500 to buy a DW.
Soap Box, Ballot Box, Ammo Box
in that order.
4 Monson Model 15's
1 Palmer FB 15
1 Rossi 357 Model 92 (lever)
1 CZ 75B
January 17, 2011
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tough times guys, and i think tougher times are coming.
hopefully we'll get through them
August 11, 2010
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You're right. we are going to have one hell of a depression. A currency
collapse is certain. I don't know quite when. Maybe it will take five or ten
years; maybe it will happen in less than two.
The last depression killed at least 7 million Americans by
starvation alone. The number may be higher; no one is sure. What's
sure is that many more people then lived in rural areas and still had
the skills of their forebears. Not so today. Almost everybody is
urban, and hardly anyone knows how to cure meat or get their own
meat. Some folks can hunt, but if one is going to get wild meat,
trapping is the real way. Who knows how to trap anymore. I do, but I
went out of my way to learn it. It's not hard or anything, but one
does have to learn it, and pretty much no one knows that skill
anymore.
How many of us can identify edible wild plants? If I didn't
already have them, I would surely get several books on this subject
for cross reference and learn what's growing locally.
Right now I'm in the process of storing food. I work at a hardware
store that sells feeds. One can get 50 lb. of wheat for $12.00 and
50lb. of corn for $10.00 at feed stores. I am drying and salting
meats and fruits and vegetables and sealing them in in 5-gallon
buckets with a desiccant called Damp Gone. It's the best desiccant
I've found. The buckets are sealed with silicone caulk. I bury these
buckets. Only I know where.
I am buying all the silver I possibly can. Some like to buy old
90% silver US coins. I may get some of those, but for now I'm buying
divisible silver rounds from QSB and NTM.
And of course ammo, yeah. I have lots. Everyone should. Personally
I like .22 lr because it's so efficient and cheap. But other kinds
to. My 7445 is very versatile. I like that.
There's no way I'd be in a city during a currency collapse. That would
be crazy.
Sometimes it's hard for Americans to believe that a currency
collapse can really happen. It can. No fiat currency lasts long. The
temptation for politicians to abuse it to death is strong. Our
currency is based on debt, not gold or silver. It' literally backed
by debt, of all crazy things. Well, and military force. If someone
wants to buy oil on the world market, they must buy US federal
reserve notes first and use those to buy the oil. Saudi and Iraq
won't accept, say, Swedish crowns. Saddam started taking euros for
oil, so we killed him. Now Iraq is back to selling oil for fed notes
only. But we can't keep this up; we are not capable of continuing to
murder anyone who dares to use other currencies. China and Russia
have already ceased trading between themselves in our fed notes. That
is the crack in the dam. The federal reserve note's day is coming,
when it will no longer be the world reserve currency. It will be
recognized for the worthless blood money it is. Then we get to see
what Wiemar-era Germany was like and Argentina in 2001. It can happen
here. It is happening here right now.
The plus side is that my silver may become very, very valuable.
I've been thinking of buying real estate, wooded acreage somewhere
out west. Let the folks who spent their lives obsessed with
basketball and pop music fight amongst themselves. : )
I recommend the many youtube videos about the price of silver.
and this too:
February 11, 2010
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..........CF .....share some of that blankie.....
-Blacktop
October 13, 2009
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Good post JD!
The thing is for some of us, moving out in the country is not an option. In my case I don't have the money, plus 3 phase power, high speed internet, etc. aren't there. Still I have a couple acres here "in town" and I think that would be enough ground to survive on. Its amazing how much food you can grow on just a couple acres.
Still, being in the middle of nowhere and not having to deal with people would be ideal. For the people that are not prepared, I kind of think its going to get ugly...on many fronts...just talking to some other people that are much more "hip" than myself (big into basketball and pop music) when posed with the question of being hungry and no food, what would you do, it came down to that the willingness is there to steal to eat. So if you are a prepared person, you are going to have to constantly be on the look out, and just venturing out in the open, you may be shot so your food can be taken.
One of the neighbors where I used to live had a farm and it was along a sort of busy road. Cows were fairly "pets" that you can walk up to them and pet them, etc. Would you know that it happened one night someone stopped and stole a calf? Ie. one small enough to get in the trunk of a car?!
Can you imagine how bad if something does go down? I would not be surprised if that same farmer would be losing cattle right and left if he wasn't watching them day and night armed. Anything will be open game to be stolen...stuff out of your garden, fuel that remains out of your cars/trucks....just about anything.
And while some may be thinking that in this chaos we may finally get back on the right track as a country, getting back to sensible policies, I kind of think its gonna be the opposite. (Team Obama-Never let a crisis go to waste) We may have a gov't ushered in that is going to be really oppressive. What if during this chaos China decides to call the debt on the US? So even the solar powered cabin in the middle of no where is not therotically safe if these cards are pulled.
It boils down to good idea to be prepared, but when its your time to go, its your time.
Eric
August 11, 2010
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I agree with everything you just said. Ron Paul once brought up the subject of what would–will–replace what we have now, government-wise. He was wondering aloud, didn't know either.
But there actually could be a bright side for some people. This is an angle I have only recently begun to think of. Robert Kiyosaki(sp?), Max Keiser, and many youtube "experts" have been saying that one could actually get quite rich as a result of financial tumult by buying silver.
They ar saying that $100.00 per ounce silver is certain, and much higher is very likely.
Here's the thing. JP Morgan Chase has sold *short* 3.5 billion ounces. That has artificially suppressed the price of silver. They've been sued by people who are invested long term in silver because the long term investors want their silver to appreciate in a natural way. They studied the market, saw that silver must go up, invested, and now JPMC is messing up their plans.
The commodities futures and trades commission has JPMC people on its board, so they have allowed JPMC to go on with all that illegal market manipulation. But silver is being used by industry like never before and it's non-renewable. Market pressures actually exist. JPMC's futures are merely promises. Silver must eventually attain its true value, and the longer it's suppressed, the bigger the price explosion. That alone makes silver a smokin' deal, but if this explosion coincides with dollar collapse, it silver could easily reach $500.00 an ounce. If that happens I get to buy a country home.
My point is that historically these things always benefit those who can see a little ahead. It's the folks who get blindsided who get hurt.
I was listening to an interview with a guy who wrote about his experience in the Argentina collapse of 2001. It was bad. People still went to work, if they still had a job, but the money was Wiemar-worthless. He said police were not functioning well, so a lot of old scores got settled, if you know what I mean. And the police were as likely as anyone to be robbers. One had to be cautious of gangs of hungry children. He said that often it was best to stay in one's house if possible.
But he survived. Myself, I'd like to do better than survive. Anyway storing up in advance is very important, and not advertising it.
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January 24, 2009
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Blacktop said:
You got it man, it's a big blankie. And I still have my shovel here to widen the hole with, so I think we're set! Wait... "Those are NOT pillows!" ...
August 11, 2010
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Pinetor said:
We are all pawns in an economic game of chess. Many of us
have been already “taken” in this awful game. But now the “bad guys” have let
it be known that check in is 3 moves and check-mate is in 4. And of course,
check-mate spells the end of the game.
I used to think that, but no more. Economic adjustments such as are headed our way happen periodically as a function of human idiocy. But people need not all be idiots. A few individuals always get rich when these things happen. I say it can be anyone on this BBS.
What do you say to the idea that we are not as helpless as we think, if only we will take proper measures(I'm referring primarily to the accumulation of silver)?
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